Winter is in mid season form despite only being mid November.
No, it's not "Global anything" it is weather, climate is different than weather as many of us learned in high school. But it certainly is extreme, and much of the nation will continue going from one extreme to another as we already have the past two months.
Take a look at some model output in the graphics. Keep in mind when I tell you what a model says or show model output it is only model output not my own forecast. MY forecast is always on the radio and at wsbradio.com.
Notice how the same model can change significantly from one run to the next just 6 or 12 hours apart. And there are some 52 different models. Sadly, many entertainment forecasters only use the one they can point to and animate.
Weather forecasts are a moving target, always changing like the traffic. It's not static, weather is constantly on the move. Hence the need to check my forecast frequently for changes in some patterns.
The brief return of above normal temperatures Sunday/Monday may come at the price of heavy rain and storms.
We get a brief break before the Arctic hounds are unleashed again late November or December.
Sinking storm tracks, and a fast growing southern El Nino split flow jet stream coming on quickly gives me the fear that winter mischief is coming back pretty quickly, even in part of the South.
I don’t know if north jet stream flow will fully lock in totally for the entire winter just yet, (usually even the harshest Winters will see major thaws) but I am concerned that a major Southeast Winter Storm is on the table before we even get to Christmas this season.
I still prefer January and February as number one for highest snow and ice potential, but the way things are going, I think all 3 winter months have a higher than average chance to bring something, even early March.
Stay tuned and follow me on twitter @MellshMeterWSB and at wsbradio.com and News 955 FM and AM 750 WSB RADIO.
(From http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/)
